Christmas Pudding, Cake and Recipe Search Trends 2021: A Study into Online Consumer Behaviour in the UK

When I read this article about Christmas Puddings in the Daily Mail with the headline "Britons stock up on Christmas puddings...", my curiosity was piqued. After all, it was only written in October, and was based on data gathered in September 2021:

"Figures released by analytics firm Kantar show 449,000 consumers bought their Christmas pudding in September - a 76 per cent rise on last year." ~ Daily Mail

Even on such a small relative sample, that's significant. It seems that online grocery shopping remains more or less in line year on year. As the article says (referring to September 2020 and September 2021): 

"while the proportion of groceries bought online was up 12.4% over the same period, compared with a 12.2% rise in September and following seven months of declines" ~ Daily Mail

Ever curious, I wondered what the search trends could tell us about this. For example: do people search for new ways to buy their Christmas puddings online, and do the search trends reflect the 76% increase in sales reported in the Kantar study?

Christmas Pudding Search Trends

The quick answer is, er, no. Online searches are about 12% down when comparing the two periods (September 2020 vs September 2021) indexed on a maximum value occurring in December 2020 as seen in Figure 1.

Figure 1 - Christmas Pudding Searches 1/9/20 to 30/9/21 ~ Google Trends

In case you were thinking that online searches were perhaps lagging behind the sales data, widening the search to include trends up to the first week of November 2021 retains that deficit when compared with the same period in 2020.

The conclusion? People know where to buy their Christmas Pudding, be it online or in their local grocery store. They're not trying to find new suppliers, and, possibly, they're not quite panicking. Yet.

It's much the same story for Christmas Cake, too, as shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2 - Christmas Cake Searches 1/9/20 to 1/11/21 ~ Google Trends

If you draw a line across the graph in Figure 2, through 24/10/2020 and 24/11/2021, there's a gradient representing a drop of around 12%. Spooky. It's also a gentler rise than in 2020, suggesting perhaps that in 2021, people know where to get their cake as well as their pudding.

Christmas Cake vs Christmas Pudding Search Trends

For those curious as to who is winning the Pudding vs Cake war, Figure X shows the two comparative trend lines.

Figure 3 - Christmas Cake vs Christmas Pudding Searches 1/9/20 to 1/11/21 ~ Google Trends

When the area under the graph in Figure 3 is calculated, Christmas Cake has about twice as much as Christmas Pudding, at least for the period referenced. Again, people aren't looking for more cake this year than they were last.

So, if you're thinking of breaking into the online Christmas cake and/or pudding space this year, maybe it's not the best business idea ever.

Christmas Cake Recipe Trends

Another popular hobby at this time of year is baking. Series 11 of The Great British Bake Off ran from September to November last year and is currently underway this year (2021). Perhaps people are baking their puddings and cakes? Spoiler alert: not so much.

Let's first take a look at the recipe trends compared with general searches for Christmas Cake and Pudding. The result is in Figure 4.

Figure 4 - Christmas Cake vs Pudding vs Recipe Searches 1/9/20 to 1/11/21 ~ Google Trends

A tenuous reading of Figure 4 might suggest that people are pretty keen on baking their cake right up until mid-November, during which time searches increase along the same lines as Christmas Puddings, and then they sort of give up.

The green line shows the trends for Christmas Pudding recipe searches. That one never really gets started until people seem to panic around 20-26 December when general Christmas Pudding searches also peak - a sudden interest in making a pudding that can't be found in the shops, perhaps?

As an aside, The Great British Bake Off started in 2010, but search trends seem to indicate that it hasn't had the effect on Christmas Cake and Christmas Pudding recipe searches that its general popularity might suggest (see Figure 5).

Figure 5 - Christmas Cake vs Pudding vs Recipe Searches since 2009 ~ Google Trends

It's anecdotal evidence, at best, but if you look at the yellow line for Christmas Cake Recipe and compare it to the blue line for Christmas Cake, there is evidence of a slight push upwards. However, the yellow line itself exhibits only a modest increase (avg. +1.73) with the exception of 2012 - 2013 (+6) and 2019 - 2020 (+11).

As I was running the numbers for Figure 5, I also noticed that the Christmas Cake peak is usually in December, when the Christmas Cake Recipe peak is in November. It's almost as if people give it a go, then take one look at the results and search for alternatives...

For completeness: the variance for the recipe query is 1.73 for an average index of 18, which is 9.6%, whereas, for the straight-up cake query, that rises to 6.73 on an index averaging 63, or 10.7%. Read into that what you will.

My own opinion is that, despite a strengthening interest in Christmas Cake recipes, it's probably not enough to make a business around. Pity, that, because I rather liked the idea. But, if it hits that 50% trend marker in Figure 4, I'll reconsider my advice - if half the Christmas Cake market is looking for recipes online, then maybe there's money in the market. At the current 25% level, it's going to be a little hit or miss.

A final note: the AdWords spending in this market is in the 15p - £1 range across variations of Christmas, cake, pudding and recipe, including single word variations like pudding, and cake, not to mention cake recipe and pudding recipe.

For me, that's an indication that despite relatively high volumes (cake: 100K - 1M, everything else in the 100K band, except pudding recipe in the 10K band), the money just isn't there to be had. Otherwise, people would be spending on advertising.

Comments, as always, are welcome, in the section below, as well as any direct questions, offers of work, etc. I filter the thread so I can pick those out rather than let them get published!

Why Every Site Needs a Search Engine

This article gives you two ways you can implement site-specific searches on your web page. Think of it as like having your own site-wide search engine. The question is: why should you do it?

It's simple, really: keywords used by your target market are part of your marketing resources. They help in market research, market development, and outreach marketing.

Search terms used by your visitors tell you what they want to see on your site. They also tell you how you should be marketing your site, what content you you should be producing, and how items should be listed for sale.

However, it can be tricky to make the most of this valuable information, and capturing it through various plug-ins is not always straightforward, or cheap.

Both these techniques are highly transparent, and free to use; my advice is to start using on-site search to monitor your existing market and build out your strategic keyword management process using the data that you gather as a result.

The Simple Search Solution

Use Google site search.

The background to this approach is represented by the following Google query:

• site:searchengineland.com keyword research

This simple instruction tells Google to only return results for the site mentioned. This is convenient for site owners who want to check their coverage of keyword terms, but also very convenient if you want to provide a site specific search function.

The only caveat is that the pages must be indexed by Google.

Drop-In Javascript

There are two parts to the solution:

• The HTML for the search form;
• The Javascript to open the search.

Refinements on the following drop-in HTML and Javascript are many and various:

• open the search in a new window;
• open the search in an inline frame;
• use various search modifiers to steer the result;
• etc.

The one major advantage is that you'll see, in your web traffic statistics, the search terms being used to query Google. This means that you can check that people are coming to your site for the right reasons, and, crucially, check that you're still serving them to the best of your ability.

Here's the basic HTML:

<input id="search query" type="text" />

<button 

onClick="window.location.href=submitSearch(document.getElementById('search_query').value);">

Search</button>

All that this does is call the Javascript function submitSearch (defined below) with the contents of the text input (that's what all that getElementById code does), and then set the URL of the current page to the result of the submitSearch function.

Here's the Javascript (stick it at the top of the page, in the head section):

<script type="text/javascript">

function submitSearch(search_query) {

  search_domain = encodeURIComponent('site:your-domain.com');

  search_text = '+"' + search_query.replace(" ", "+") + '"';

  return search_domain + search_text;

}

</script>

This snippet forms the query out of the site and the query text, making sure that it is safe for use in a URL. Important: you should replace your-domain.com with your own domain.

The result is a Google search page, containing results for the keywords typed in by the visitor, restricted to pages from your site. In your logging, you will then see an Exit with the URL, inclduign the keywords.

Note that this doesn't work for sub-domains terribly well; so, for it to work, you will need to buy your own domain name, even if you only use it to point to Blogger!

More Advanced Options

Create a Google Custom Search engine, and add it to your site.

There are a few pre-requisites:

• Your site is registered in Search Console;
• You have Google Analytics set up.

The process is relatively painless, if a little technical. However, as always, the Google help on the topic is pretty good, and as long as you can edit your web site HTML, it should be fairly straightforward.

A big plus for bloggers, especially, is that it can be monetised via AdSense, too.

Tip: You get a bit more power, and advanced analytics (thanks to integration with Google Analytics and Search Console) including the ability to use sub-domains.

So, What Now?

The worst thing you can do is nothing.

At a minimum you need to give your site users a decent way to search your content for something that is meaningful to them. The next worst thing would be not to track the things they look for.

Google has tried to make this a bit more opaque, in the name of privacy. They hide the content of query strings made by users who are logged into their Google account, for example. However, you should attempt to get as much search data from your own site as possible.

Why?

The reasoning is simple: if a visitor comes to your site, looking for something specific and can't find it, it's your responsibility to make sure that you supply it.

This is how market research operates. Strategic keyword management - treating your pool of available SEO friendly keyword phrases as a valuable business resource - relies on market research.

Without it, you're just throwing spaghetti at the wall, hoping that some of it sticks.

Keyword Selection Strategies for Your Keyword Research & SEO Projects

One of the questions that comes up from people following the free Keyword Research & SEO Tutorials is "How do I implement a keyword selection strategy?"

This article comprises top tips from the Niche Blogger Content Blueprint book, with a slight twist to help you apply the theory regardless of whether you're:

Strategy: Keyword Selection

• a product creator
• an author
• a store owner
• blogger, niche marketer or affiliate...

These are tips for everyone, whether they have an offline or online business; or are playing the hybrid game -- taking offline online and vice versa.

The Volume Strategy

This is, on the face of it, and easy one.

If you are looking for volume, then just pick the keyword phrase with the most searches (on average) per month, right?

Wrong. Or, at least, half wrong...

For a start, keywords are seasonal, and so your target keyword selection needs to be seasonal, too.

(You can download monthly keyword statistics right from within Keyword Planner.)

Then, keyword search volumes differ by geographic location; remembering that you have two geographies to take account of -- your own, and your market's -- and so, keywords have to be selected from a pool that makes geographic, as well as seasonal sense.

Get these two right, though, and you'll be making the best start.

But what if volume isn't your only priority?

The Value Strategy

There are two values in this strategy, both linked to the Suggested Bid calculated by the Keyword Planner.

The Low Value strategy places the emphasis on the cost of advertising to a group, whereas the High Value strategy looks at a niche that has a relatively high advertising spend as one that offers potential riches.

If you are an advertiser, the balance is towards a wide reach (Volume) and low cost (Suggested Bid, or Cost-per-Click). This is the Low Value strategy, which is a bit of a misnomer, because if you get it right, it can bring in a great ROI.

The trick is to make sure that you do the keyword research properly to identify a high-converting phrase (not just a high click-rate, but a high conversion rate once the visitor hits your page)  with a relatively low CPC.

The other side of the coin is to look for niches with a very high value (Search Volume x Suggested Bid) and make that the basis of your keyword selection. However, I would caution against using these keyword phrases in an AdWords campaign because, unless  you have a very high conversion rate and margin, it can become an expensive project!

The Competition Strategy

Anyone who has hired an SEO specialist has probably heard the term "KEI" (Keyword Effectiveness Index) which is a weighted calculation that tries to take account of the fact that not many people read past the first 10 results of a search, and of those that do, the click rate tails off noticeably...

(If you want proof of this, just look at your GWT / Search Console data, and order it by SERPs, and watch the click-through-rate plummet! To take advantage of this "lost traffic", check out my Zero Traffic Keyword Research post.)

The theory behind the KEI is that the more competition you have, the less attractive a keyword.

Up to a point, I agree.

However, as keywords become more and more long-tail in nature, this may well change, and a more modern index might be in order.

For a start, if you are going to try and evaluate the competition, use an appropriate search context:

• the correct search domain (i.e. google.co.uk/.com/.fr etc...);
• keywords "in quotes" (narrow match);
• PTB (phrase-to-broad) ratio, where available.

The first two are pretty obvious, but the last one is a specific ratio that some of the bigger automated tools provide and which is tough to calculate on your own. Your best bet, if you're doing the job manually, is to construct a query:

• using the allintitle: option (Google-specific, sorry!)
• break the phrase into "quoted" "sections" that represent the "long-tail"

If you apply these two in conjunction with the correct context, then the estimated number of pages returned by Google should fairly represent the competition.

Just remember that the value is relative and so the absolute number is irrelevant. My advice would be to put the results on a logarithmic scale, and use that as the basis for your keyword selection process.

Your Keyword Selection Strategy

Of course, you can use these principles to roll your own keyword selection strategy; we do that every time a client buys one of our keyword research services.

It's an easy thing to do using a spreadsheet. For example, if you have the search volume in Column 'B', and the CPC (suggested bid) in Column 'C', then a value-weighted strategy might use a formula such as:

• =B * (C^2)

On the other hand, if you want to skew by volume:

• = (B^2) * C

Other factors, such as the Competition Index (KEI or equivalent -- free download from Launch2Success here) can be built into the formula, too, so that you get the best keyword selection strategy for your own specific use.

To see the keyword selection process in action, check out the Niche Blogger Content Blueprint or one of our free tutorials (links at the top of the page.)

Keyword Research for Email Marketing

Many businesses find that email marketing remains one of their channels with the highest ROI.

This is mainly due to the fact that they have responsive email lists, built up from customers who have already put their hands up in one of the following ways:

• downloaded and taken action upon a free report;
• purchased a relatively cheap item;
• engaged with the business.

The most responsive of the above are, clearly, existing customers. Indeed, many marketers go one step further and claim that customers' appetite for products will usually exceed your capacity to create new ones.

Subsequently, considering building a list is free, and as long as the list is correctly segmented and the appropriate message sent to each one, the conversion rates can lead to very impressive results.

What is Email Marketing?

Email marketing is often merely described as an email message sent to a prospect with commercial intent.

But that's like saying that marketing is equal to display advertising, which is patently untrue. To get an idea of just how untrue that is, I usually refer clients to Figure 1.1 in "The Marketing Book" by Michael Baker and Susan Hart which depicts the whole of marketing as an iceberg.

Advertising is at the top -- it's the bits you see -- whereas the 90% that you don't see, and which is often neglected, is the true nature of marketing, whose purpose is not only to reach a market and convince them to buy but also to understand that market, related markets, the customer's needs and products that can be presented to them.

So, if you're using email marketing just to send a coupon out (Advertising, Promotion & Public Relations in The Marketing Iceberg) then you're doing it wrong.

Email marketing should also be viewed variously as:

• a tool for Market Testing;
• a platform for Product Development;
• a way to conduct Market & Customer Needs Research.

Each type of list (customer, prospect, etc.) has its use: there is no point, for example, trying to elicit feedback about a commercial product that you know the list recipients could not have bought because they are on a prospects and not a buyers list.

So, where does keyword research come into the equation?

Using Keyword Research for Email Marketing

The first thing to remember is that different list segments will react to different messages.

A buyer probably doesn't need a lot of encouragement to buy again; they just need you to offer them a credible product that is related to something they have already bought. And if you're doing your strategic keyword management properly, you'll already know where their pain/passion points are.

Prospects, on the other hand, need to make that first decision to buy with you: and that's usually a decision that they make with their gut and then justify with logic.

It needs to feel right: so the emotive trigger words come into play.

Not only do you need to participate in a conversation that they are already having outside of your relationship (again, keyword research will throw up these conversations) but you need to push their buttons to drive them to take action.

Of course, you can also use email marketing to elicit reaction (market research), test new product ideas (free downloads in return for market research) and develop a relationship with new markets (referral and affiliate marketing).

However, each interaction needs to come with a healthy dollop of keyword research, as this is the only real way you can be sure that you are communicating with the target market.

Benefits of Keyword Research for Email Marketing

That communication underpins the key benefit: contact.

Every email is contact with the target market, existing market, or to use a more current term, your tribe.

Each time you make contact with your tribe, you build confidence. As confidence in you and your leadership of the tribe grows, so does the trust between you, and your influence within the tribe.

Using keyword research effectively shows that you understand your tribe: you speak to them using words they have either used themselves, or that make perfect sense to them. When combined with well-known trigger words (Richard Bayan's Words that Sell has a good list), your message will become very difficult to refuse.

To get started, check out the Keyword Research Tutorials or take The Keyword Coach for a test drive with one of the low cost keyword research services. Remember: there's gold in those hills, and you can learn how to mine it!